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Posted on November 13, by Scott Alexander I. A lot of people pushed back against my post on preschool , so it looks like we need to discuss this in more depth. Sometimes test scores go up a little bit, but these effects disappear after a year or two of regular schooling. But these studies were done in the 60s, before people invented being responsible, and had kind of haphazard randomization and followup. They were also small sample sizes, and from programs that were more intense than any of the scaled-up versions that replaced them.
Modern scaled-up preschools like Head Start would love to be able to claim their mantle and boast similar results. We can expect those results in ten years or so. For now, all we have is speculation based on a few quasi-experiments. Deming is my favorite of these. He looks at the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a big nationwide survey that gets used for a lot of social science research, and picks out children who went to Head Start.
These children are mostly disadvantaged because Head Start is aimed at the poor, so it would be unfair to compare them to the average child. This ensures the controls will come from the same socioeconomic stratum, but he acknowledges it raises problems of its own.
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